Andrew Singer Talks About China

America Votes 2024 Special Issue

China and A Changed America

Today’s Special Issue is a break in my Bhutan and Buddhism series (it wll return next week). America voted. A clear majority of Americans have spoken. And the validity of the outcome is not being debated. Though there will be a lot of processing, handwringing or jubilation to be had in the coming days, the result is that the world and China’s place in it are about to enter a different, even more complicated space.

U.S. White House (photo by Matt Wade, www.commons.wikimedia.org)

Something momentous just happened. America elected a unified, federal government (President, Senate, and possibly House of Representatives) that is most aligned with the growing number of nations that have adopted or promote individualistic, autarchic democracy as a preferred style of political, economic, and cultural rule in contrast to the Western Liberal Democratic Order that has been dominant since the end of World War II.

What does a more authoritarian America mean for China (and by extension the rest of the world)?

At the end of the day, history will likely view this new America as a postive outcome for China. This is a nuanced clarification of my previous writing that China did not care who won the election because a distracted America is to China’s benefit. On this latter point, I have not changed, but now add further detail as the election results are known.

Donald Trump campaigned to govern on grievance, revenge, and closed (economic and political) borders. If he is even moderately successful in this, the domestic impacts in America will reverberate with consequence. Fear will run rampant and the ongoing rupturing of American society will deepen. Economically, what happens to consumer prices if those who pick and process our fruits, vegetables, and meats are no longer here? If widespread tariffs close off the cheap imports that we demand? If floated repeal or revision to recent industrial policy chokes off domestic investment in new technologies and manufacturing? America’s domestic economy is going to soon be in the crosshairs of tectonic upheaval.

This distracted, struggling America will be a boon as well as a threat to China.

It will be a boon because the decline in America’s political and military influence in the world, which been happening for many years, will accelerate. This will be both by design (America First) and because of China’s expansion in the Global South and, to a lesser extent, Europe to offset and fill the void.

Not without challenges (geopolitics is inherently messy), China’s Belt and Road Initiative has led to massive Chinese economic investments and deepening connections in South America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and in between. China has also become more active, respected, and assertive in international organizations and governance. China’s military has increased opportunities for port visits and bases closer to home and around the globe. The less America invests and is involved abroad, the clearer and cleaner is China’s path to increase her involvement, power, and prestige.

It will be a threat because of how integrated China is with the American market and because of reintroduced belligerence in the bilateral relationship. China holds a great deal of American debt, and anything that threatens the economic attractiveness of the U.S. is not good in this regard. In addition, increased tariffs, even if the costs are ultimately born by American consumers, are problematic for China.

China’s ability to decouple and deleverage from the U.S. with outlets elsewhere as well as her ability to respond tit-for-tat with sanctions and protective measures, will militate the threats. China's plate is full with the need to manage her own, spiralling domestic problems and complex international environment, but the country should be in a stronger position to ultimately succeed in the face of a changed America.

Closer to home in Asia, pledges to discontinue U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia and to increase U.S. support for Israel in its fight against the Palestinians and others are positive signs for China. These actions would turn more segments of the world against America and mean that America will therefore be more unlikely (even if it was so inclined other than rhetorically) to substantively affect the balance of power in the South China Sea or in China’s land border disputes with India, Bhutan, and elsewhere, or most importantly in relation to Taiwan.

Reabsorbing Taiwan into China politically is the Chinese government’s red line. It is one that Joe Biden repeatedly stated could be crossed. It is one that Japan and other countries are trying to better position themselves on. It is also one that a Trump America is unlikely to jump toward, let alone cross.

Without America being willing to commit troops and resources to the island's active defense if attacked, future Chinese control of Taiwan is pretty much ensured. And it really should not require a military invasion, with great loss of life and devastation to Taiwan's vaunted economic base, to accomplish. Again, absent others coming to its aid, Taiwan can presumably be completely and suffocatingly blockaded by air and sea at almost any time China chooses.

America has chosen its path. It has been touted by its proponents as leading to resurrection and rejuvenation. I fear the opposite.

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